The researchers used an open-source model called the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to simulate a spectrum of emissions scenarios. “But even with increased ambition, we’re still far away from getting down to 1.5 degrees in this century.” “We find there’s a roughly one in three chance that we’ll stay under 2 degrees Celsius,” said Ou. And we practically ruled out the possibility of the worst climate outcomes of 4 degrees or higher.”īut making the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit more likely will take more ambition, cautioned lead author Yang Ou, a postdoctoral researcher at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a partnership between PNNL and the University of Maryland. “The wave of strengthened climate pledges and net-zero targets significantly increased our chance of staying under 2 degrees Celsius. “We are so much closer to getting to the 2-degree goal than six years ago when the Paris Agreement was first signed,” said corresponding author Haewon McJeon, a research scientist at the Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). Under the 2015 pledges, the probability of such warming was, at 10 percent, more likely. Under the new pledges-and if those pledges are successfully fulfilled and reinforced with policies and measures of equal or greater ambition-the study’s authors estimate those chances now rise to 34 and 1.5 percent, respectively. If countries strike a more ambitious path beyond 2030, those probabilities become even more likely, rising to 60 and 11 percent, respectively.įurther, the chance of global temperatures rising above 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) could be virtually eliminated. Under pledges made at the 2015 Paris Agreement, the chances of limiting temperature change to below 2 and 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100 were 8 and 0 percent, respectively. The study’s authors find the latest NDCs could chart a course where limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) and under within this century is now significantly more likely. COLLEGE PARK, MD - Over 100 nations have issued new commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions ahead of the United Nations Conference of the Parties, or COP26, currently underway in Glasgow, Scotland.Ī new analysis published today in the journal Science assessed those new pledges, or nationally determined commitments (NDCs), and how they could shape Earth’s climate.
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